Tuesday Polling Data and Listening Posts

TUESDAY NEWS UPDATE: Last minute undecideds and voter turnout will determine today’s results…turn out critical in Indiana for Obama.

FINAL IN, NC DEM PREZ POLLS; NC & INDIANA PRIMARIES FOR GOVERNOR, CONGRESS.

P2008 - DEMS. Since the NHL playoffs are going on these days, a hockey metaphor seems rather appropriate. Barack Obama is clearly playing the trap -- safe, runs out the clock, dull as hell to watch, but usually works. Let's face reality -- and risk pissing off the Hillary Clinton folks out there -- but most observers now acknowledge Obama will win the nomination. It's a matter of mathematics. Securing the nomination won't look like a knockout win (unless possibly if Obama wins both Indiana and North Carolina), but a win is always a win. So can we please get this thing over with already! That said, here are some new polls for Tuesday's primary contests:

INDIANA (Zogby): Obama - 44%, Clinton - 42%.
INDIANA (Insider Advantage): Clinton - 48%, Obama - 44%.
INDIANA (SurveyUSA): Clinton -54%, Obama - 42%.
INDIANA (Suffolk Univ.): Clinton - 49%, Obama - 43%.
INDIANA (PPP): Clinton - 51%, Obama - 46%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Zogby): Obama - 48%, Clinton - 40%.
NORTH CAROLINA (SurveyUSA): Obama - 50%, Clinton - 45%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Insider Advantage): Obama - 48%, Clinton - 45%.
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Obama - 53%, Clinton - 43%.

NORTH CAROLINA. Several other races are also on Tuesday's Presidential primary ballot. GOVERNOR: Governor Mike Easley (D) is term-limited, so both parties have competitive primaries to replace him.

On the Dem side, polls show Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue leading State Treasurer Richard Moore by several points.

On the GOP side, initial frontrunner Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory has seen his advantage disappear. State Senator Fred Smith has either tied or narrowly passed McCrory in recent polls, although GOP insiders believe McCrory may be a stronger candidate in November with better crossover appeal.

Three other Republicans are also running. US SENATE: Incumbent Elizabeth Dole (R) will win her primary in a landslide. State Senator Kay Hagan -- the DSCC's candidate -- is favored over investment banker Jim Neal for the Democratic nomination. CD-3: Congressman Walter Jones Jr. (R) is facing an aggressive primary challenge from Onslow County Commissioner Joe McLaughlin. Jones -- a former Iraq War supporter-turned-vocal critic -- was the only Congressman to endorse Ron Paul for President. McLaughlin strongly supports the Iraq War, which is helping him in this district heavily dominated by giant military bases.

This race could go either way. CD-10: Congressman Patrick McHenry (R) is being challenged by retired USAF officer Lance Sigmon. Sigmon argues McHenry is dishonest and has "character" flaws, but the challenge really seems to be grounded upon the ongoing whispering campaign that McHenry may be a closeted gay man. Retired Congressman Cass Ballenger (R) has endorsed Sigmon, but McHenry is still expected to win by a comfortable margin. CD-11: Three Republicans are fighting to win the right to oppose freshman Congressman Heath Shuler (D) in November. Based upon fundraising to date, none of the Republicans look to be particularly viable against Shuler.

INDIANA. There are also gubernatorial and congressional primaries here on Tuesday. GOVERNOR: Former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson appears to have a slight edge over architectural firm owner Jim Schellinger in the Dem gubernatorial primary. Schellinger had fallen far behind, but recent polls show him rapidly closing the gap again. The winner will face vulnerable Governor Mitch Daniels (R) in November. CONGRESS: While the ballot is filled with US House races, only two primaries merit real attention. In CD-5, Congressman Dan Burton appears likely to score a comfortable win over former Marion County Coroner John McGoff. In CD-7, recently elected Congressman Andre Carson (D) should be able to fend off an aggressive and free-spending primary challenge from wealthy former State Health Commissioner Woody Myers. State Representatives David Orentlicher and Carolene Mays, plus four other Dems, are also running.

MONDAY NEWS UPDATE.

DEM SCORES UPSET PICKUP IN LOUISIANA CONGRESSIONAL SPECIAL ELECTION; OBAMA WINS GUAM BY 7-VOTE MARGIN; NEW NC, IN POLLS.

LOUISIANA. State Senator Steve Scalise (R) easily won the CD-1 congressional seat left vacant by the election last year of Congressman Bobby Jindal as Governor. Scalise won 75% of the vote against three opponents in the special election run-off. The big news of the day, however, was the upset win of State Representative Don Cazayoux (D) in the CD-6 special election. Cazayoux defeated former State Representative and newspaper publisher Woody Jenkins (R) by a 49% to 46% vote, with three Independents capturing the remainder. The CD-6 seat had been in GOP hands for over 30 years. Cazayoux -- a self-proclaimed centrist "Blue Dog Democrat" -- won despite a heavy barrage of Republicans TV ads and mailings trying to equate Cazayoux with "liberal" Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama/Jeremiah Wright and House Speaker "Nancy Pelosi and her San Francisco values." The same NRCC message also failed to sway conservative voters in the Mississippi special election primary last month.

P2008 - DEMS. Barack Obama narrowly defeated Hillary Clinton on Saturday's Guam primary. Voters in Guam cast ballots for delegate slates committed to a candidate. Delegates pledged to Obama won 2,264 votes, while Clinton's slate captured 2,257 votes. Obama's seven vote victory -- a virtual tie -- means that Obama and Clinton won two delegates apiece. There are also some new polls for Tuesday's primary contests:

INDIANA (Zogby): Obama - 43%, Clinton - 41%.
INDIANA (Insider Advantage): Clinton - 47%, Obama - 40%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Zogby): Obama - 48%, Clinton - 39%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen): Obama - 49%, Clinton - 40%.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1498

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