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Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary:

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Pennsylvania: Clinton 52% Obama 37%

Thursday, March 06, 2008

In Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton has opened a fifteen percentage point lead over Barack Obama. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Clinton attracting 52% of the vote while Obama earns 37%. (See Video)

In late February, before Clinton’s comeback victories in Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island, the former First Lady’s lead in the Keystone State was just four percentage points. The big difference between that poll and the current result is found a among men. Clinton now leads by seventeen percentage points among women and eleven among men. In the previous survey, she was ahead by fifteen points among women but trails by fourteen among men.

The Clinton bounce is consistent with the national trends where she has recently taken the lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. A Rasmussen Reports video notes that the race for the Democratic nomination is now all about the Super Delegates. It is possible that when the primaries come to an end, Obama will have won the most pledged delegates while Clinton will have won the popular vote. That is especially true if she wins by a significant margin in Pennsylvania. Larry Sabato recently discussed the possiblity that this race may end up a brokered convention.

It is possible that the Clinton commercial about a 3:00 a.m. phone call at the White House has helped in Pennsylvania (see the commercial). Most Likely Democratic Primary voters have either seen the ad or have heard about it. Forty-eight percent (48%) of Likely Democratic Primary voters say that if such a call came, they’d want Clinton in the White House to answer it. Thirty percent (30%) would rather see Obama while 15% of these Democratic voters would prefer the Republican nominee, John McCain, to answer the call. Among men, 23% prefer McCain.

Yesterday, an Obama advisor expressed exasperation with the Clinton commercial and said that neither Clinton nor Obama is ready to handle that 3:00 a.m. phone call. The Clinton team happily circulated a YouTube video of those comments to reporters far and wide. John McCain also enjoyed the exchange and said he agreed that neither Democrat was ready to deal with a foreign policy crisis.

On another hot topic, 25% of Likely Primary Voters in Pennsylvania say that the North American Free Trade Agreement—NAFTA—has been good for the United States. Forty-three percent (43%) have the opposite view. Clinton leads by twelve percentage points among union members.

Clinton leads by twenty-two percentage points among those who say the economy is the top voting issue. She leads by twenty-eight among voters who view health care as the top priority. Obama leads by ten among those who say the War in Iraq is most important. Fifty percent (50%) of those likely to vote in the Primary view the economy as the most important voting issue for Election 2008. Eighteen percent (18%) say it’s the War in Iraq while 13% name Health Care.

In the Keystone State, Clinton is viewed favorably by 77% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. Obama is viewed favorably by 71% overall.

Saturday, March 08, 2008

On Saturday, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows that Hillary Clinton’s Texas-Ohio bounce may have faded a bit. In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s Clinton 46% Obama 45% (see recent daily results). New polling data shows that Obama is favored to win next Tuesday’s Primary in Mississippi by double digits and the May 6 North Carolina Primary by single digits. In between those two events is the April 22 contest in Pennsylvania. Clinton enjoys a large lead in the KEYSTONE STATE.

Clinton is viewed favorably by 72% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. However, that figure includes just 51% of Obama voters. Obama is viewed favorably by 73% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters, a figure that includes 45% of Clinton supporters.

It is possible that the Primary season could end with one candidate winning a majority of the pledged delegates and another candidate winning a majority of the popular vote. If that happens, 57% believe the nomination should go to the candidate with a majority of the popular vote. Adding to the confusion, there may be different winners of the popular vote depending upon what happens with the contested delegates in Florida and Michigan. If there are “do-over” Primaries in those states, Hillary Clinton begins with a big lead in the Sunshine State and it is tied in Michigan.

In the General Election, it’s a tie at this early stage of the contest. Obama leads McCain 46% to 45% while Clinton and McCain are tied at 46%. (see recent daily results). The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows that--without including “leaners”--the Democrats now lead 252 to 189 in the Electoral College. (see summary of recent state general election polling).

In many ways, it’s remarkable that the race is so competitive at the moment. Just 19% of voters believe the nation is better off than it was four years ago, just 19% believe the USA is heading in the right direction, and the Rasmussen Consumer Index shows that consumer confidence has fallen to the lowest level in seven years. Most Americans, 54% say that their own personal finances are getting worse. Women are more pessimistic than men and unaffiliated voters are especially pessimistic. One of the few bright spots in the public mood is that confidence in the War on Terror remains high.

Nationally, McCain is viewed favorably by 51% and unfavorably by 45%. Obama is now viewed favorably by 51% of likely voters nationwide, unfavorably by 46%. Clinton earns positive reviews from 48% of Likely Voters nationwide and negative assessments from 50% (see recent daily results).

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The next Presidential Tracking Poll update is scheduled for Sunday at 11:00 a.m. The results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorable ratings.

Rasmussen Markets data now give Obama a 75.0% chance to win the Democratic nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at 23.0%. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Pennsylvania: Clinton 52% Obama 37%

Michigan: Clinton 41% Obama 41%

42% Want McCain to Answer 3:00 a.m. Phone Call

54% Aware of Daylight Savings Time on Sunday

Florida: Clinton 55% Obama 39%

Obama Better Battle Back Before It's Too Late: A Commentary by Dick Morris

Electoral College: Democrats 284 Republicans 229 Toss-Ups 25

South Dakota: McCain Enjoys Strong Leads in Mount Rushmore State

South Dakota: Incumbent Johnson Way Ahead in Senate Race

Internet 1^st Stop For News!

The Web is the primary source of news and information, according to 48% of respondents to a February Zogby International Poll commissioned by iFOCOS.

Television was the main source of news for 29% of respondents, followed by radio with 11% and newspapers with 10%.

Unsurprisingly, the preference for online news was more pronounced among younger adults. About 55% of those ages 18 to 29 said they got most of their news and information online, compared with 35% of those ages 65 and older.

Two-thirds of respondents said that traditional journalism was out of touch with what Americans wanted from their news and 64% were dissatisfied with the quality of journalism in their communities.

The dissatisfaction was concentrated among self-identified conservatives and independents, 79% and 75% of whom were dissatisfied, respectively.

"The challenge for traditional news companies is complex," said Andrew Nachison, co-founder of iFOCOS.

"They need to invest in new products and services - and they have. But they've also got to invest in quality, influence and impact. They need to invest in journalism that makes a difference in people's lives. That's a moral and leadership challenge - and a business opportunity for whoever can meet it."

(3/6/2008) - eMarketer, NY

Controlling the Net - How Hard Could it Be?

Electronic Frontier Foundation

“... could become as important a journalistic tool as the Freedom of Information Act.”

- Time Magazine-

Read Here!

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