The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday March 03, 2008, (Plus)

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday March 03, 2008,

(Plus)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Hillary Clinton inching ahead of Barack Obama nationally for the first time in three weeks. In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination nationally, Clinton now holds a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Obama, 45% to 44%. It’s the first lead of any kind enjoyed by Clinton since Obama won blowout victories in the Potomac Primaries on February 12 (see recent daily results). Ever since that time, expectations that Obama would win the nomination have grown dramatically. Despite this, Obama has yet to reach the 50% level of support nationwide at any time in the daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Clinton’s modest rebound nationally corresponds to a similar pushback against Obamamania in both Ohio and Texas. She now holds a modest lead in the Buckeye State while the winner in Texas will be determined by turnout and late deciders. It remains to be seen whether this is a temporary slowing of Obama’s momentum or something more substantial. Rasmussen Markets data shows that Obama is favored to win Texas while Clinton is favored in Ohio. Rasmussen Markets data is updated continuously and will be the first to measure the impact of Tuesday’s results on prospects for Clinton and Obama.

Looking to the general election, John McCain has a slight lead over both Democrats. McCain now leads Obama 47% to 42% and Clinton 47% to 44% (see recent daily results). In New Jersey, Clinton leads McCain but the race is a toss-up with Obama as the Democratic nominee.

Obama is viewed favorably by 51% and unfavorably by 47%. McCain’s numbers are 54% favorable, 43% unfavorable. Clinton earns positive reviews from 47% of Likely Voters nationwide and negative assessments from 50% (see recent daily results). Dick Morris says that Hillary Clinton was unmasked in the last debate with Barack Obama.

Obama is trusted more than McCain on the issues of health care and education. McCain has the edge on negotiating trade agreements. Last week, a separate survey found that McCain is trusted more than Obama when it comes to National Security, the War in Iraq, and the Economy. Obama is trusted more on the issue of Reducing Government Corruption.

In the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination, John McCain currently earns 52% of the vote, Mike Huckabee attracts 31%, and Ron Paul is supported by 9% (see recent daily results).

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The next Presidential Tracking Poll update is scheduled for Tuesday at 11:00 a.m. The results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorable ratings.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator Electoral College projections shifted over the weekend due to a surge in the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats. Without including “leaners,” the Democrats now lead 252 to 189 in the Electoral College (270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House). The Balance of Power Calculator determines projections by aggregating a variety of information from many sources including polls, the Rasmussen Markets, analyst assessments and more (see summary of recent state general election polling). A commentary by Michael Barone suggests that we will have to throw out the old red and blue state Electoral Maps for Election 2008.

Rasmussen Markets data now shows McCain with a 95.0% chance to win the nomination and Huckabee has a 1.0% chance. On the Democratic side, the Markets give Obama a 85.1% chance to win the Democratic nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at 14.2%. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends. Rasmussen Reports also provides a weekly analysis of the race each Monday.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Breaking Down The Buckeye State
New Republic (subscription) - Washington,DC,USA
In anticipation of the results, we've put together a massive guide to the Ohio primary, complete with all the information you need on the state's key ...

Dennis Kucinich - www.Kucinich.us

Known simply as Dennis to most people in his Rust Belt hometown, Kucinich has returned to his familiar fighting-for-you mantra to win renomination. He landed a quick $700,000 in contributions.

“I’m not a patsy for business. I can’t be bought,” a frowning Kucinich said during a campaign debate. The debate appearance was a rarity for Kucinich, who has won re-election by margins of up to 75 percent in a reliably Democratic district.

With three other challengers on the ballot, Kucinich should benefit from a divided anti-incumbent vote. North Olmsted Mayor Thomas O’Grady, anti-war activist Rosemary Palmer and former Peace Corps volunteer Barbara Ferris all have campaigned on much smaller budgets.

“Dennis is going to make it for the simple reason that the opposition is divided,” said Alexander P. Lamis, who teaches political science at Case Western Reserve University.

Charles Burke, professor of politics at Baldwin-Wallace College in nearby Berea, said Kucinich also would benefit from widespread name recognition.

“I’m not a patsy for business. I can’t be bought,” a frowning Kucinich said during a campaign debate. The debate appearance was a rarity for Kucinich, who has won re-election by margins of up to 75 percent in a reliably Democratic district.

With three other challengers on the ballot, Kucinich should benefit from a divided anti-incumbent vote. North Olmsted Mayor Thomas O’Grady, anti-war activist Rosemary Palmer and former Peace Corps volunteer Barbara Ferris all have campaigned on much smaller budgets.

“Dennis is going to make it for the simple reason that the opposition is divided,” said Alexander P. Lamis, who teaches political science at Case Western Reserve University.

Charles Burke, professor of politics at Baldwin-Wallace College in nearby Berea, said Kucinich also would benefit from widespread name recognition.

Kucinich’s campaign has included union-run phone banks, door-to-door canvassing, community candidate forums, mailings and handshaking at church fish fries. The plainly dressed people in his TV ads have a straightforward message: Dennis has been there when we needed him.

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